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Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."